The index · Record
X
5 posts
“@FemCondition No. In probability, “independent” has a very specific meaning; it doesn’t just mean two events are separate or different. Two events are independent only if one occurring does not change the probability of the other. Separate events can still be statistically dependent. -fin-”
X · Mon Aug 24
“@FemCondition That screenshot doesn’t prove what you think it proves. It explicitly distinguishes independent from dependent events. Your Clancy variables are related, so you need the relevant conditional probabilities -not simply the separate percentages multiplied together...”
X · Mon Aug 24
“@FemCondition You keep “stacking” marginal probabilities and treating that as the probability of this individual case. It isn’t. Look up conditional probability and the prosecutor’s fallacy. Intro stats covers the former; the latter is the legal version of that error...”
X · Mon Aug 24
“@FemCondition “The rarer each occurrence, the less likely they are to occur together” is not a rule you can apply without knowing how the events are related. That’s exactly the statistical mistake you keep making.”
X · Mon Aug 24
“@FemCondition PPP, psychosis and filicide are related; timing is a diagnostic feature, not another independent event. You therefore can’t just multiply all those marginal probabilities together.”
X · Mon Aug 24